-- Text for Eurodressage by David Stickland of Global Dressage Analytics
The quadrennial World Championships Dressage are almost upon us and it's that time again. What has in the past been called the World Equestrian Games (WEG) are since 2022 the FEI World Championships and the 2026 edition will start in Aachen on 11 August 2026.
These World Championships include Dressage, Eventing, Vaulting, Jumping, Driving and Para-Dressage. The Para-Dressage starts on 19 August and will be the subject of a future article.
The WC Format
These WC (or WEG) take place in 4-year cycles offset from the Olympics by 2 years. The format is similar to the OG, but not the same.
The Grand Prix is open to all nations with teams of either 3 or 4 combinations – if the team has 4 riders then the scores of the top 3 are combined to form the Team score. Nations, without a Team entry, may send up to 2 Individual riders who will also perform the Grand Prix.
The Grand Prix is both the Team medal competition and the qualifier for the Individual Championship, Grand Prix Special. The top 30 scores from the Grand Prix qualify for the Special – including any tied for 30th place. The Special serves as the Individual Dressage World Championship Grand Prix Special, but also as the qualifier for the Freestyle where the top 18 GPS rides qualify for the Freestyle – but (!), only a maximum of 3 riders per nation can qualify for the Freestyle Championship.
Let’s start with the Team Competition
There are 92 Definite Entries with 19 teams from Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Great Britain, Germany, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand (first time!) and the USA.
In addition, there are individual riders from Cyprus, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Greece, Hungary, India, Israel, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Morocco, Mexico, Norway, New Zealand, Singapore and Turkey.
With 92 entries, the event of course takes place over two days (11/12 August) with a team start order determined by a draw in groups of five (5), based on the average of the points of the participating team athletes on the FEI Dressage World Ranking list for Athletes. Within a nation the starting order is determined by the Chef d’Equipe BEFORE the team order draw is carried out.
So, as is my way, I have been following the scores of all potential riders and from that can make predictions! Of course, luckily (!), actual events play out differently from predictions so you can take this with a pinch of salt, though it is more likely that a ride has a mistake and performs under prediction than it performs much higher than prediction.
These predictions are derived from the final scores in GP and GPS competitions in 2025 and 2026 at CDI events. As an example of one of those predictions, I show that for Carl and Fame.
Put them together for the Teams and sum the 3 best predicted scores and you get a glimpse of how the Team competition might play out:
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With each predicted team score there is also an “uncertainty” bar shown, with the top of that bar on the assumption that each rider performs at the same level as their best ride in 25/26 and the lower bar being under the assumption that each rider performs at their average score over the that period.
So, Germany is looking favourites to win -- (has this ever happened before) -- but both Great Britain and Denmark are close by waiting for any hiccup in the German rides! The numbers are very close: Germany 235.0, Great Britain 232.6, Denmark 231.6 with the typical uncertainty in those predictions of about plus or minus 3. Belgium, Netherlands and Sweden form a strong second group and after that the differences between teams become quite small and there could be many changes in final ranking. Thailand may be at the end of the ranking by prediction, but all power to them for bringing their first ever team to a WEG/WC/OG level event!
The Individual Grand Prix Special Championship
Of course, we don’t know yet who will really qualify for the Special, but if things go according to predictions then it might look like this:
Will it be Cathrine’s time to beat Justin in Aachen? Very close predictions with less than a quarter of a percent separating them! With, of course, Isabell waiting just behind and ready to take a higher medal if she gets the chance! I have shown just the best 20 predictions here. Don’t forget that 18 riders go to the Freestyle with a maximum of 3 from each nation – so the competition is going to be intense in the Special to qualify for that!
And the Freestyle? Well, I’m not quite crazy enough to make a prediction for that one. Riders can make changes in their Freestyle tests up to the time they finally submit the floorplan and music, so for that one we wait till the day…
Let’s all look forward to what looks like being an exciting 5 days this week!
-- Text for Eurodressage by David Stickland of Global Dressage Analytics
-- Photo © Sharon Vandeput/Hippofoto
Related Link
Eurodressage Coverage of the 2026 World Championships Dressage