19th August 2006 - The WEG Forecast

One of Eurodressage's readers sent us a very interesting excel spreadsheet yesterday in which he predicts the team dressage ranking at the upcoming 2006 World Equestrian Games. Based on this excel file, Holland will win team gold at the WEG in Aachen taking the Dutch team riders' performances at their last CDI outing into account. However, Germany will win the gold if you base your prognostication on the average Grand Prix scores of the German team riders at their last four CDI's.

Can you predict the Future of Dressage by analyzing the Past? The 2006 World equestrian Games start on Sunday August 20 and the team competition takes place Tuesday (22/8) and Wednesday (23/8). Let's check if "Spreadsheet Man" will be right!?

The spreadsheet shows all the team riders competing at the 2006 World Equestrian Games and reviews their four last scores achieved at a CDI competition which is listed in the official FEI database at www.horsesport.org. The Excel file features three separate team rankings, one ranking is based on the scores the riders achieved at their last CDI (in the FEI database), the second one is based on their average Grand Prix score at their last two CDI's and the third one is based on the average Grand Prix score at their last four CDI's.

Just looking at the most recent results, Holland will win the team gold medal with an average Grand Prix score of 76.0%. Because Warum Nicht FRH dropped out, Germany's average Grand Prix score is down to 75.4% which would give them silver. The U.S.A is in bronze medal position with 72.6%. Denmark (71.0%) places fourth and Great Britain (70.2%), Sweden (70.0%), Spain (69.5%) and France (68.6%) follow. Before Warum Nicht withdrew, there was not even 1% difference between Germany and Holland. With Debbie McDonald and Brentina on form, the USA is destined to take the Bronze. However, if Brentina is below par, Denmark, USA, Sweden and Great Britain are all within 1%.

However, when taking into account the average Grand Prix score of the last 2 or 4 performances for each rider, Germany is in the lead. Based on the last 4 competitions, Germany has an average Grand Prix score of 74.3% while Holland has one of 73.8%. USA is still in third place with 71.5%, but Sweden has moved up to a fourth spot with 70.5%, followed by Denmark (69.9%), Spain (69.2%), Great Britain (68.4%) and Austria (68.2%). Experience shows that the most recent results count the most, as horses are gradually build up to a peak performance at the end of the season.

I don't have a mathematical frame of mind, and am inclined to compare these statistics with weather forecasts. They come close to reality, but they are never right. One stressed horse or rider, one small spook, a sudden wind or rain shower, anything can interfere with a ride. The only thing one can be 100% certain about is that the team competition at the 2006 World Equestrian Games will feature the toughest duel ever between dressage nations Germany and The Netherlands. We'll be there to witness it!

--Astrid Appels
info@eurodressage.com